Monthly newsletter Hungary – November 2022
Orbán meets Scholz in Berlin
As is well known, Prime Minister Viktor Orbán travels to Berlin every two years to meet with his counterpart in the Federal Chancellery. Before he was received by Olaf Scholz on October 10th, he had already visited former Chancellor Angela Merkel the day before. Orbán also met with Armin Laschet, the Hungarian parliamentary representative of the CDU/CSU faction, gave a lecture at the German-Hungarian Economic Forum and also paid a visit to 1. FC Union to talk to the Hungarian national player András Schäfer. Little details are known about Orbán's visit to Merkel and later to Scholz; the discussions were confidential. No press conference was held and there was no communication from the Chancellery about the meeting. In retrospect, Orbán described the talks with Scholz as “fruitful,” and one could talk to Scholz “like a Hungarian,” which means that Olaf Scholz was a pleasant, straightforward conversation partner. The difficult topics were also discussed with a result that everyone can be satisfied with. said Orbán.
6. German-Hungarian Barometer
At the beginning of October, the results of the 6th German-Hungarian Barometer of the Nézőpont Institute and the Konrad Adenauer Foundation Hungary were presented. Since 2017, the opinion research institute has been surveying the mood between Hungarians and Germans every year. An overwhelming majority of respondents in both countries are still convinced, 88% in Hungary and 70% in Germany, that good relations between the countries are very important for the future of Europe. At the same time, a majority of respondents still had a positive opinion of the other country, 56% in Hungary and 59% in Germany.
National consultation on war sanctions
According to a recent survey by the government-affiliated Nézőpont Institute in mid-October, one in two Hungarians believes that the EU sanctions are “more likely to harm Europe”. Only 12% thought the sanctions would be more likely to harm Russia, while a third said the sanctions would harm both sides equally. Left-wing voters were far more convinced of the sanctions than voters in the bourgeois camp. 24% of left-wing voters said the sanctions would be more likely to hurt Europe, while 28% said the sanctions would be more likely to hurt Russia. Fidesz sympathizers answered the question clearly: only 2% thought that the sanctions would hit Russia rather than Europe.
Current polls
According to the latest survey by the government-affiliated Nézőpont Institute, Fidesz was able to gain 5 percentage points compared to the last survey at the end of August and would therefore receive 52 percent of the vote. The Democratic Coalition was also able to increase its popularity, gaining 3 percentage points and is currently the most important opposition party with 9 percent approval. Momentum and Mi Hazánk each lost 2 percentage points of voter support and are now at 3 and 4 percent, respectively. The formerly important parties MSZP and Jobbik currently only receive 2 percent of voters each. A newcomer to the long line of opposition parties is the movement “For the People” (A Nép Pártján), which reached the 1 percent threshold for the first time in October. The movement's founder is Péter Jakab, the former Jobbik chairman. The number of people who do not explicitly vote for one of the opposition parties, but would definitely vote on the left, has increased significantly. At the end of August there were 16 percent of such undecided left-wing voters, now it is already 20 percent.
The government-critical Idea Institute came to a different conclusion in a survey at the beginning of October. Although the institute found stable support of 51 percent for Fidesz among safe voters, the Democratic Coalition can count on far more voters in its survey than the Nézőpont survey showed. According to Idea, the DK would get 20 percent of the votes. The right-wing extremist Mi Hazánk would get 9, Momentum 6, Jobbik 4 and the other opposition parties 3 or less 7 percentage points. Equally interesting is the look at the support of the parties in the population as a whole, i.e. including non-voters and those who are undecided. Idea noted that instead of 36 percent support among the general population at the time of the election, Fidesz's support is currently at just 30 percent, while support for the Democratic Coalition among the general population has increased to pre-election levels (12 percent). According to the polling institute, the governing parties reached their electoral cap in April and are now gradually starting to lose voters on the margins.
To the source:
The German-Hungarian Institute for European Cooperation is intended to provide a forum for academic, scientific and political dialogue between Germany and Hungary and to familiarize decision-makers and interested specialist audiences from both countries with topics, debates, processes, thought patterns and ideas from the other country. The aim is to achieve greater understanding, communication and constructive cooperation by objectifying the German-Hungarian discourse and thus renew our Europe together.
We would like to support this goal and publish excerpts with the kind permission of the authors. The complete issue can be found here as a PDF. The institute's website you can reach here.
